Humphrey Arnald Russel
The future of the Asia-Pacific will depend significantly on how China and ASEAN leverage their strategic roles to make the RCEP a platform for shared prosperity.
Over the past years, the Asia-Pacific region has witnessed a significant transformation in its geopolitical landscape. While earlier patterns of cooperation were predominantly defined by Western military alliances and security pacts, recent trends have witnessed the strengthening of economic cooperation within multilateral frameworks.
One of the most notable economic agreements to emerge in the region is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which includes ASEAN, East Asia, and Oceania. As the world’s largest free trade agreement, the RCEP encompasses nearly 30 percent of global GDP and a combined population of 2.2 billion people, representing a diverse range of economies, religions, and political systems. Given its scope, the RCEP should not be regarded solely as an economic instrument; it holds the potential to evolve into a platform that nurtures a new ecosystem of regional economic cooperation and sets norms and mechanisms for state-to-state trade relations in the Asia-Pacific.
It is notable that the United States, despite being a strategic partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), is not a participant in the RCEP. This absence is primarily due to the lack of a formal free trade agreement between the US and ASEAN—one of the prerequisites for joining the RCEP.
The US decision to remain outside the agreement may reflect broader shifts in its global engagement, particularly under the Donald Trump administration, which withdrew from 31 United Nations–affiliated organizations and 35 non-UN international bodies. Additionally, actions such as the US military intervention in Venezuela and the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro—under the name of safeguarding national security—have been widely criticized for violating international law and undermining the credibility of the United Nations in the eyes of the international community.
Amid this global uncertainty, China, as the largest economic actor within the RCEP and Indonesia as Southeast Asia’s largest economy and a founding ASEAN member, are well-positioned to lead efforts to ensure that the RCEP functions as a rules-based platform for regional long-term interests. Bilateral relations between China and Indonesia have shown continued strength and progressive development, bolstered by significant public support.
Survey data consistently indicate that Indonesians view China as a key actor in both regional and global affairs. For instance, the State of Southeast Asia 2025 Survey Report, conducted by the ASEAN Studies Centre at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, found that 72 percent of Indonesian respondents would choose China over the US if forced to take sides in an ongoing strategic rivalry. This finding is reinforced by the Center for Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS) 2025 report, Insights into Indonesian Perception of China, which revealed that 66 percent of respondents hold positive or strongly positive views of China–Indonesia relations. Additionally, China was ranked as Indonesia’s most preferred primary partner by 32 percent of respondents, surpassing Western countries (22 percent) and fellow ASEAN members (17 percent).
To advance mutually beneficial cooperation, China and Indonesia should strengthen high-level dialogue, deepen people-to-people exchanges, and align their regional policy agendas. Long-term synergy between Indonesia’s Vision 2045 and China’s Belt and Road Initiative offers a foundation for expanding economic ties, particularly in renewable energy, public health, and sustainable development.
Under the RCEP framework, both countries can enhance collaboration in higher education, small and medium-sized enterprises, and strategic sectors such as electric vehicles, green technology, and digital infrastructure, contributing to regional resilience and inclusive growth. From a political standpoint, the RCEP provides Indonesia with an institutional mechanism to engage China constructively while maintaining its non-aligned foreign policy. This enables Indonesia to benefit economically without compromising its strategic autonomy.
At the broader regional level, ASEAN–China relations under the RCEP framework represent a central pillar in ensuring the credibility and sustainability of the agreement. The RCEP did not emerge in isolation; it is the culmination of decades-long efforts toward East Asian economic integration—an initiative largely driven by ASEAN with strong support from key partners, especially China. As such, the ASEAN–China partnership serves as a stabilizing anchor that ensures the RCEP functions as a dynamic and responsive mechanism tailored to the region’s economic needs.
China, as the largest economy in the bloc, has a strategic interest in securing the effective implementation of the RCEP. At the same time, ASEAN continues to play a balancing role in maintaining the agreement’s inclusive nature, preventing the dominance of any single actor. At the subregional level, China’s engagement through the Lancang–Mekong Cooperation mechanism with five ASEAN countries—Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar—has also been enhanced. The recent upgrade of this mechanism further deepens ASEAN–China cooperation and complements broader RCEP objectives.
Since its entry into force years ago, the RCEP has demonstrated measurable progress in facilitating regional economic integration and trade flows. The agreement has contributed to strengthening intra-regional economic ties among its members. According to the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, the RCEP region witnessed robust foreign direct investment growth between 2021 and 2024, followed by a phase of investor stabilization. The post-pandemic recovery bolstered investor confidence, while global headwinds in 2022–23—including geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and tighter financial conditions—moderated capital inflows.
Despite these challenges, Asia remains a resilient and dominant position as a global investment hub, accounting for over 40 percent of global FDI in recent years. By 2024, investment levels remained substantial, with a noticeable shift toward high-value strategic sectors, particularly digital technology and clean energy.
Looking ahead, the future of the Asia-Pacific will depend significantly on how China and ASEAN leverage their strategic roles to make the RCEP a platform for shared prosperity, anchored in the principles of equality and fair trade.
The author is the head of the ASEAN–China Research Center at the University of Indonesia. This article was contributed to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
